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The Ifo Institute (University of Munich Research Center for Economics) in Germany said its business climate index had tumbled from 101.2 in June to 97.5 this month, which is the lowest in three years. The sub-index covering expectations for the next six months, at 90.0, are the weakest since November 2002. Ifo’s statement concluded, “These results suggest that the economic upswing is coming to an end.”
French business confidence dropped to the lowest for more than three years, according to Insee, the statistical institute.
The IASE, International Association for Statistical Education, reported Italian business confidence was the weakest since October 2001. Meanwhile in Spain, unemployment rose in the second quarter to the highest level in three years.
According to a Goldman Sach’s Executive Dirk Schumacher, with the exception of Spain, the large 15 country Eurozone has not faced the pain of the economy as in the United States.
Opinions differ as to what the numbers will show in the fourth quarter.
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Last week, the government in Hanoi raised fuel prices over thirty percent. The decision was met with public outcry. Just as in every other economy, the hardest hit are the worker’s and consumers of the lower and middle classes. Social unrest is met with vigorous disapproval from the government and officials are keeping an eye on the disarray.
The Prime Minister, Nguyen Tan Dung, has issued warning for state owned companies to tighten their policies and to cut back on all expenses as well as to avoid all unnecessary investments.
Mr. Dung also called his cabinet to undertake a stricter monetary policy and to make price control an “utmost priority.”
Mr. Dung intends to cut the inflation rate back to single digits by year’s end, but the Vietnamese government may have to sacrifice high economic growth rates.
The Asia Development Bank has recently reduced their growth forecast for Vietnam in 2008 to 6.5% from the previous 7%.
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